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Tuesday, May 18, 2010

At What Price?

The reports showing up here and there that the Nats may - emphasis on MAY - be interested in Roy Oswalt are very interesting.

Now I learned a long time ago that Internet/printed/whatever trade rumors are most of the time nothing more than space fillers. Throw stuff against the wall and see what sticks. Make up your own trade and see if it happens (bonus points if it does). So it is all likely a crock.

Let's say, just for fun, it isn't.

I love it, only because Oswalt is one of my favorites. A big-time pitcher and I think he'd be a plus addition even if he isn't quite what he used to be.

The question - at what price? He isn't going to come cheap.

Prospects? Is there anyone other than the S&S twins you wouldn't be willing to see go in exchange? Derek Norris? Espinosa? Anyone else? As long as it isn't a pitcher drafted in 2009 whose last name begins with S, I'm OK with that. Brian Oliver and others who know the system better than I do may disagree. Side with them, not me.

Young mound hopefuls? Suppose the price includes Jordan Zimmermann? Worth it? (NO). Ross Detwiler (YES). Luis Atilano (YES). They can pretty much have any current Nats pitcher other than Livan (a personal thing), J-Zimm, Capps and S/S. I'd go so far as to say any two. Or three.

A current regular and a prospect? Obviously, R-Zim is off the table. Probably Dunn, too. Anyone else you wouldn't give up for an Oswalt? Suppose they say Oswalt for Desmond, straight up?

It's a big risk/reward thing. Will the addition of Strasburg and Oswalt be enough to push the Nats into the playoffs? If so, pretty much any price that doesn't begin with S or Z may be worth it.

Fun to talk about, that's for sure. My guess on the chances of it happening? About zero percent.

Last week's poll, by the way, drew a weak 69 votes. I'll blame the weak question. Anyway, 49 of the voters have take a dive into the Kool-Aid pond and say they'd pick a higher win total (including me). Twenty are taking a more realistic approach and indicated they would not change their predictions.

New poll coming soon.

7 comments:

Brian said...

The only names I would hesitate to include are Zimmermann, Norris, Strasburg & Storen. After that, anyone is fair game.

MikeHarris said...

The other part of the question is how many of the top-level prospects (with noted exclusions): two? three? straight up?

Jaxpo Nat said...

I was going to say Norris as the centerpiece, given the imminent arrival of Bryce Harper, but the 'Stros #1 prospect is catcher Jason Castro so they don't need a catcher.

Suspect it would be something like Stammen, Millone, Detwiler for Oswalt. Don't really see it happening, though.

Ryan said...

If the Astros propose an Oswalt-for-Desmond deal straight up, I hope Mike Rizzo laughs in their faces.

That said, I wouldn't hate it if we ended up with Oswalt. For the right price. No need to go crazy for him.

Eric said...

SD got 4 players for Jake Peavy, all young pitchers (Clayton Richards, Aaron Poreda, Dexter Carter and Adam Russell).

I think this is fairly indicative of the cost for Oswalt, so I'd expect to see him for
1. Detwiler or Stammen
2. 2 of Aaron Thompson, Brad Meyers, Tom Milone & Danny Espinoza
3. A younger prospect like Norris (A+), Ramirez (A), Hood (A)

Would you pay THAT for a 33 year old RHSP? I say NO.

cass said...

Don't we need a right-fielder more than a starting pitcher now? Our rotation has been holding together ok so far and we're about to get Strasburg. In another month, we could get Detwiler or Wang to replace anyone who falls off their tight-wire act. And a month later, Zimmermann or Marquis may be available. Although there's a chance everything blows up, I think our starting rotation is pretty decent.

Sec3MySofa said...

The best trades like this bring several "layers" of prospects to the rebuilding team. No sense trading one good player for one guy who might get hurt tomorrow--got to lay off that risk somewhere, in the numbers.
I would expect Oswalt to be worth at least as much as Eric Bedard, wouldn't you?