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Monday, March 1, 2010

Just Do It

Blogger with Benefits Mark Zuckerman posted just a few minutes ago about Adam Dunn and his willingness to do a long-term deal with the Nationals.

This is just a drive-by to tell anyone who cares that I'm all for that.

Now I'm 100 percent certain that those who understand all the modern statistics - sliderule stats, I call them - can come on here and show us all kinds of numbers that say this is dumber than dumb's dumbest idea ever.

I for one don't understand all those new fangled stats. My man Adam Kilgore talked about ERA+ in one of his recent posts and some of the comments tried to explain it and I took something away that it was regular ol' easy-to-figure ERA with ballpark factored in and then I had to go find some aspirin.

Dunn's VORP may be out of whack and his CROHM Factor may too high and his BAPIP may blow (wait, I think that's a pitcher's thing). His Orion Participle isn't very good and his OPBRH is not what it should be just past his 30th birthday. The Zone Marginal is way off and his Labrador Retriever is a little slow.

Here's what I do know: He hits home runs with a decent frequency and a lot of them go a long way. He even made my sweet and pure wife say, "Holy S***" with a couple of his blasts last season.

He looks like he's enjoying himself. It pained me to watch FLop because you could just read ASSHOLE in every aspect of his body language. You don't get that with Dunn.

I don't need a daggone degree from MIT to tell me what I enjoy watching (or even who is a pretty good player - despite my ignorance of the lingo, I have a small clue).

Players I enjoy watching are players I want to stick around. Players I don't enjoy watching, even if their GORP Pythagorium is off the charts, I don't want to stick around.

I enjoy watching Dunn play.


Deez Nats said...

Mike: slide rules have been out of use for about 40 years ;)

TBC said...

This deal with Dunn is going to get done just as surely as last year's deal with Zimmerman did. Pay no attention to the doom-and-gloom Lerners are Cheap crowd who say it won't.

natsfan1a said...

Git r done! Heh.

Felipe's time with the Nats didn't end well, and I wasn't his biggest fan by the end. But I will say this about Lopez. We were standing around the RFK parking lot as players exited after the last game of the season. A. Soriano, who we figured wouldn't be back, cruised on by all the waiting kids with a casual finger point and a slight tilt of his head. A number of other players passed without stopping. Felipe was the only player who stopped and signed autographs for the waiting kids. So there's that.

Positively Half St. said...


Pete's sake. Why would you have to upset my high dudgeon about FLop by making him human?

On Dunn-

I have to agree that my heart says to keep him. Perhaps he can improve his batting average and fielding a little, but I love watching him hit and take walks. It seems that Marrero is on a path to be Adam Dunn only if he is lucky. He is also challenged at first base, but is no lock to hit 35 to 40 HRs a year.

MikeHarris said...

Deez - I never figured them out when they were in vogue but I can barely work a calculator

natsfan - if memory serves, FLop was actually OK for a lot of 2007, too. For some reason, his head went south in 2008.

1/2 - I saw Marrero at first in 08 at Potomac. He was not The Big Cat over there. I don't think we need 7-8 years with Dunn but I'd darn sure be OK with 4-5.

natsfan1a said...

Sorry, PHS. I hate when that happens. :-)

I think that's true re. 2007, Mike (if my memory serves, which it doesn't always).

James Bjork said...


Instead of just throwing up your hands about all these newfangled statistics, why not a compromise as an alternative to continuing to rely SOLELY on outdated statistics.

Just pick one new "catch-all" stat that encompasses the sum total of a player's offense (what he contributes to runs scored by his team) AND his defense (what he prevents on the field). Examples would be "Win Shares" or "Value Over Replacement Player". Nice thing is, many of these catch-all statistics work for (or are directly translatable) to pitchers too.

Yes Adam Dunn is one of the few players around for whom you hold your bladder and wait for his at-bat before going to the biffy. But then how many dribblers by opposing batters are going to sneak under his outstretched glove compared to Teixeira's....

The total package is what matters, and it wouldn't kill you to spend a few minutes on wikipedia to get the gist of one of these newer catch-all ratings. You could at least tell people that you prefer to see players whose win shares result from the offensive side of the ledger...

MikeHarris said...

James - that is an outstanding suggestion but you seriously overestimate the capability of my little brain!
I find it interesting, for lack of a better word, that I knew how to figure out batting average and earned run average when I was four and I can't figure this other stuff out as I approach 54.
Sure, I'll admit some of the new stats are probably very useful. But users of them must admit there's too many of them and some of it is OVERKILL!

Mrs. Zuckerman said...

I think this is quite possibly the best use of sabremetrics I have ever seen. I'll have to look into that Labrador Retriever stat, though. I think Dunn's is okay.

MikeHarris said...

Mrs. Z - based on his season-ticket sales ad, Dunn's Labrador Retriever has actually picked up some. So I'm even more in favor of a deal.

Still not sure how his HOHOHO factors in post-holiday but I'm not going to let that affect my thinking.